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Treasury prices continue the downtrend I predicted 1 year ago. Yields continue to surge in 2022.

One year ago, I made a bold prediction concerning the 10-year U.S Treasury bond in my January 6, 2021, report. If you are interested in reading the full report, you can view the report in the Trading Floor Research Newsletter library at https://www.tfrtrader.com/public-pdfs.

December 27, 2020:

The iShares 7–10-year treasury is set up in an inverted cup-with-handle base. The bottom of the cup and rising two-year trendline from November 2018 converge at 119.20. If we close below this number, US treasuries could collapse.”


January 06, 2021:

Today treasuries started the selloff by closing below 119.20, breaking the two-year rising trendline, and completing the inverted cup and handle base. The 10-year Treasury traded above 1% for the first time since March last year. I believe we are seeing a historic trend change in US Treasuries that will last for many years to come. We will see higher highs in yield and lower lows in price from this point. A bear market in US Treasuries is very probable. This is a trend we haven’t seen for forty years and will make stocks more difficult to trade.”


The 10-year Treasury yield is up 17.2% in the first ten trading days of 2022 and closed at 1.792%. Since my prediction on January 6, 2021, 10-year treasury yields have risen 80% and look to go considerably higher as the 10-year treasury prices have broken down below a lower-level inverted cup-with-handle base that started April 2021. (Refer to iShares Barclays 7–10-year Treasury Bond (IEF) chart)



The higher yields have created a bear market in technology stocks that will continue in 2022. This is where the TFR newsletter will help readers find industry groups that are going higher and provide shorting opportunities in industry groups breaking down.


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